Metz
vs
Boulogne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Metz 1–0 Boulogne
The model makes it 41% Metz, 29% draw, 30% Boulogne — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Metz 1.42, Boulogne 1.14.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Metz's rating is built from 12 Ligue 2 matches and Boulogne's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Metz are 7th on 17 points from 12 games; Boulogne are 12th on 13 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Metz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Montpellier.
- Boulogne have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Annecy.
- Last 6 meetings: Metz 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2013, ended Boulogne 1–0 Metz.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Metz vs Boulogne
Has the model earned this number?
Metz at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Metz vs Boulogne
Metz
Ligue 2
- W3-2away to Montpellier6 November 2026
- L1-3PAU30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dunkerque23 October 2026
- W3-2Sochaux17 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026
Boulogne
Ligue 2
- W3-0Annecy6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Laval30 October 2026
- D1-1Reims26 October 2026
- W2-0away to Grenoble16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sochaux9 October 2026
What these results say
- Metz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Metz.
- Boulogne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boulogne had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Metz
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Boulogne
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Metz vs Boulogne
- 24 May 2013Boulogne 1–0 MetzLigue 3
- 3 August 2012Metz 2–1 BoulogneLigue 3
- 30 March 2012Metz 1–0 BoulogneLigue 2
- 5 November 2011Boulogne 0–1 MetzLigue 2
- 29 April 2011Metz 3–1 BoulogneLigue 2
- 7 December 2010Boulogne 0–2 MetzLigue 2
Leading scorers: Metz and Boulogne
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall81
- J. Deminguet33
Boulogne
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Metz a 0.7% chance of the title and Boulogne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Metz v Boulogne has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Boulogne's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Metz win41%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Boulogne win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Metz against 1.14 for Boulogne. Metz's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.22 for Boulogne.
How the model reaches 41% for Metz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Metz to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Metz's ratings add 3 points and Boulogne's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Metz's ratings43%+3
- Boulogne's ratings41%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Metz at home · Boulogne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MetzBoulogne
Metz are 7th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Boulogne are 12th after 12 (between 1st and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Metz 12, Boulogne 12.
Metz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Boulogne have let in 3 there.
Boulogne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Metz have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Metz
- at Clermont Foot4 Dec · Ligue 2win 36%
- vs Reims11 Dec · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs Nancy2 Jan · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Nantes15 Jan · Ligue 2win 36%
- vs Dijon22 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
Boulogne
- vs PAU4 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
- vs Rodez11 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Dunkerque2 Jan · Ligue 2win 29%
- at Saint Etienne15 Jan · Ligue 2win 21%
- vs Sochaux22 Jan · Ligue 2win 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.