Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Bayer Leverkusen, 28% draw, 27% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 8R. AndrichM
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 7J. HofmannM
- 35Christian KofaneF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 11M. TerrierF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 3M. EstèveD
- 22D. RaumD
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 7A. NusaM
- 40RômuloF
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 27T. GomisF
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 45S. KonateF
- 2A. KonéD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 13N. SeiwaldM
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
- 2 May 2026Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 20 December 2025RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 25 January 2025RB Leipzig 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–3 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 20 January 2024RB Leipzig 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick62
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku41
- A. Nusa35
- T. Gomis32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 2–0. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrik Schick 44' for Bayer Leverkusen, Miguel Gutiérrez 57' for Bayer Leverkusen.
How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Bayer Leverkusen win45%▼ −3
- Draw28%▲ +2
- RB Leipzig win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.