TSV Hartberg
vs
Lask Linz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: TSV Hartberg 1–2 Lask Linz
The model makes it 32% TSV Hartberg, 28% draw, 40% Lask Linz — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.32, Lask Linz 1.62.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are TSV Hartberg wins, grey are draws, red are Lask Linz wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
- L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026
Lask Linz
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
- W4-1Ried14 August 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Lask Linz | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz
- 26 April 2026TSV Hartberg 1–5 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 13 March 2026Lask Linz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 6 December 2025TSV Hartberg 2–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Lask Linz 3–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 26 May 2025Lask Linz 2–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 10 May 2025Lask Linz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
- C. Hoffmann2 goals1 assists
Lask Linz
- S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
- C. Lang4 goals
- M. Usor2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.53 for Lask Linz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.62 for Lask Linz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.58 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lask Linz rate 0.74 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives TSV Hartberg a 0% chance of the title and Lask Linz 19.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.62 for Lask Linz. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.4 for Lask Linz.