Norwich
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Norwich 2–1 Bolton
The model makes it 44% Norwich, 28% draw, 28% Bolton — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Norwich 1.79, Bolton 1.17.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Norwich vs Bolton
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Norwich wins, grey are draws, red are Bolton wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norwich at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Norwich vs Bolton
Norwich
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
- W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stoke City1 September 2026
- W4-1Burnley29 August 2026
Bolton
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Bolton
- 16 February 2019Bolton 0–4 NorwichChampionship
- 8 December 2018Norwich 3–2 BoltonChampionship
- 24 February 2018Norwich 0–0 BoltonChampionship
- 4 November 2017Bolton 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 11 April 2015Bolton 1–2 NorwichChampionship
- 31 October 2014Norwich 2–1 BoltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Norwich and Bolton
Norwich
- M. Touré4 goals
Bolton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Norwich carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.53 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Norwich and 1.17 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Norwich rate 0.79 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.73 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Norwich a 1.1% chance of the title and Bolton 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Norwich against 1.17 for Bolton. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.39 for Bolton.