20 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Norwich vs Bolton Championship prediction & result

Carrow Road, Norwich
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Norwich 3-4 Bolton.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Norwich, 28% draw, 28% Bolton — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Norwich at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norwich0%Draw5%Bolton95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mohamed Toureassist: Andre Brooks
5'
8'
⚽Thierry Galeassist: Ruben Rodrigues
🔁Mohamed Toureout: J. Makama
15'
⚽Ruairi McConvilleassist: Oscar Schwartau
19'
42'
⚽Gaizka Larrazabalassist: Max Conway
47'
⚽Sam Dalbyassist: Kyliane Dong
🔁Oscar Schwartauout: Jacob Wright
59'
🔁Anthony Musabaout: Paris Maghoma
59'
⚽Jack Staceyassist: Paris Maghoma
61'
70'
🔁Kyliane Dongout: Samuel Iling
70'
🔁Ruben Rodriguesout: Atsuki Ito
72'
⚽Atsuki Itoassist: Samuel Iling
🔁Andre Brooksout: Ante Crnac
82'
83'
🔁Gaizka Larrazabalout: Xavier Simons
90+2'
🔁Sam Dalbyout: Thelonius Bair

Match stats — Norwich vs Bolton

59%Possession41%
10Shots8
4On target5
4Corners2

Line-ups

Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. KovačevićG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 33J. CórdobaD
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 23K. McLeanM
  • 7P. MattssonM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 49A. MusabaM
  • 29O. SchwartauM
  • 21M. TouréF
Substitutes
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 17A. CrnacF
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 32D. GrimshawG
Coach: P. Clement
Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 31G. BazunuG
  • 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
  • 18E. ToalD
  • 6B. DaviesD
  • 25M. ConwayD
  • 8J. SheehanM
  • 21E. ErhahonM
  • 7K. DongM
  • 20Ruben RodriguesM
  • 11T. GaleM
  • 10S. DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 14A. FamewoD
  • 16S. Iling-JuniorF
  • 17A. ItoM
  • 45J. McAteeF
  • 26J. NelsonF
  • 4X. SimonsM
  • 12D. WatsonM
  • 9T. BairF
  • 1J. BonhamG
Coach: S. Schumacher

Form going into Norwich vs Bolton

Norwich

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
  • W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Stoke City1 September 2026
  • W4-1Burnley29 August 2026

Bolton

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
  • L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
  • Bolton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Norwich124082022-212
18Bolton124261623-714

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Norwich vs Bolton

  • 16 February 2019Bolton 0–4 NorwichChampionship
  • 8 December 2018Norwich 3–2 BoltonChampionship
  • 24 February 2018Norwich 0–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 4 November 2017Bolton 2–1 NorwichChampionship
  • 11 April 2015Bolton 1–2 NorwichChampionship

The full Norwich vs Bolton record →

Leading scorers: Norwich and Bolton

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Bolton

GoalsAssists

  • S. Dalby40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bolton won 4–3 at Norwich. The model had leaned towards a win for Norwich at 44% and given a win for Bolton 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mohamed Toure 5' for Norwich, Thierry Gale 8' for Bolton, Ruairi McConville 19' for Norwich, Gaizka Larrazabal 42' for Bolton, Sam Dalby 47' for Bolton, Jack Stacey 61' for Norwich, Atsuki Ito 72' for Bolton.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.