Wolves
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wolves 2–0 West Brom
The model makes it 51% Wolves, 26% draw, 23% West Brom — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Wolves 2.04, West Brom 0.97.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wolves vs West Brom
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Wolves wins, grey are draws, red are West Brom wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wolves vs West Brom
Wolves
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
- L2-4away to West Ham1 September 2026
- W4-1Stoke City29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Preston22 August 2026
West Brom
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs West Brom
- 28 January 2024West Brom 0–2 WolvesFA Cup
- 3 May 2021West Brom 1–1 WolvesPremier League
- 16 January 2021Wolves 2–3 West BromPremier League
- 12 February 2012Wolves 1–5 West BromPremier League
- 16 October 2011West Brom 2–0 WolvesPremier League
- 8 May 2011Wolves 3–1 West BromPremier League
Leading scorers: Wolves and West Brom
Wolves
- Fer López3 goals2 assists
- R. Jiménez3 goals1 assists
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wolves carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.56 for West Brom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Wolves and 0.97 for West Brom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolves rate 0.95 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Brom rate 0.74 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour West Brom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wolves a 6.2% chance of the title and West Brom 5.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Wolves against 0.97 for West Brom. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.32 for West Brom.