Ried
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Ried 1–0 Wolfsberger AC
The model makes it 48% Ried, 28% draw, 24% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ried 1.75, Wolfsberger AC 0.92.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ried wins, grey are draws, red are Wolfsberger AC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ried at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
Ried
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg11 September 2026
- L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
- W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
- L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
Wolfsberger AC
- L0-3Rapid Vienna12 September 2026
- L1-3Lask Linz1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Lustenau15 August 2026
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ried | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
- 19 May 2026Ried 2–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 9 May 2026Ried 0–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 11 April 2026Wolfsberger AC 0–0 RiedBundesliga
- 29 November 2025Ried 1–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 18 October 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–2 RiedBundesliga
- 26 September 2023Ried 1–2 Wolfsberger ACCup
Leading scorers: Ried and Wolfsberger AC
Ried
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Wolfsberger AC
- G. Vrioni4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ried carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.21 for Wolfsberger AC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Ried and 0.92 for Wolfsberger AC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ried rate 0.59 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolfsberger AC rate 0.50 and 1.82.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wolfsberger AC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ried the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ried against 0.92 for Wolfsberger AC. Ried's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.82 for Wolfsberger AC.