13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result

PayPal Park, San Jose
Full time1 – 0

Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% San Jose Earthquakes, 30% draw, 30% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Jose Earthquakes97%Draw3%Houston Dynamo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ronaldo Vieira
1'
Jamar Ricketts
19'
Beau Leroux
19'
⚽D. Munieassist: B. Leroux
38'
65'
🔁D. Samassekouout: H. Herrera
🔁N. Tsakirisout: I. Harkes
69'
🔁B. Lerouxout: N. Fernandez
69'
75'
Agustin Resch
77'
🔁D. McGuireout: M. Arana
77'
🔁I. Aliyuout: N. Markanich
🔁E. Lowenout: J. Skahan
82'
🔁O. Boudaout: L. Jovanovic
82'
84'
🔁Felipe Andradeout: F. Negri
Benjamin Kikanović
90'

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

38%Possession62%
10Shots11
1On target5
1Corners3
1.38xG1.02

Goals against chances

San Jose Earthquakes1 from 1.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Houston Dynamo0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 28B. KikanovicM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 23E. LowenM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 10N. TsakirisF
  • 34B. LerouxF
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 3P. MarieD
  • 40J. A. Gonzalez MendozaM
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 21N. BuckM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 9L. JovanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 6ArturM
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 24I. AliyuM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 23D. McGuireF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 37G. RiveraD
  • 17N. MarkanichF
Coach: Ben Olsen

Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
  • L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026

Houston Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
  • D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026

What these results say

  • San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5San Jose Earthquakes32131095447+749
4Houston Dynamo3214994239+351

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

  • 30 August 2026Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 22 June 2023Houston Dynamo 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd162

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

San Jose Earthquakes beat Houston Dynamo 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for San Jose Earthquakes at 40%. The goal: D. Munie 38' for San Jose Earthquakes. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.02.

How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Houston Dynamo's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. San Jose Earthquakes win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Houston Dynamo win30%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.