San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% San Jose Earthquakes, 30% draw, 27% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.48, Houston Dynamo 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
Houston Dynamo
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
- D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
- L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
- 30 August 2026Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2023Houston Dynamo 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.48 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.94 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.57 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Houston Dynamo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 3.9% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 10.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 0.94 for Houston Dynamo. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.23 for Houston Dynamo.