Real Madrid vs Inter UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 2-1 Inter.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Real Madrid, 27% draw, 34% Inter — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Inter
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonateD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17M. CucurellaD
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldM
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 21B. DiazM
- 10K. MbappeF
- 7Vinicius JuniorM
- 13A. LuninG
- 26S. MestreG
- 22A. RudigerD
- 18A. CarrerasD
- 33M. RivasD
- 14A. TchouameniM
- 27T. PitarchM
- 29J. Cestero SanchoM
- 9EndrickF
- 1J. MartinezG
- 28B. PavardD
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 17A. DioufM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 20H. CalhanogluM
- 21C. JonesM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 10L. MartinezF
- 9M. ThuramF
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 6J. StonesD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 7P. ZielinskiM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 5A. StankovicM
- 8P. SucicM
- 94F. EspositoF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Inter
Real Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
- W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026
Inter
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Inter
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé31
Inter
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid beat Inter 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Real Madrid at 39%. The goals: K. Mbappe 14' for Real Madrid, F. Valverde 23' for Real Madrid, Carlos Augusto 77' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.83.
How the call on Real Madrid v Inter has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Real Madrid's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Real Madrid win39%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Inter win34%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.