Lille vs Real Betis UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lille 2-3 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Lille, 30% draw, 32% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Real Betis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. OzerG
- 22T. SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4AlexsandroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 21B. AndreM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 8E. MbappeM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 28G. PerrinM
- 18A. UedaF
- 12O. GillG
- 23T. NianzouD
- 26I. CossierD
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 2L. SrdanovicD
- 14M. KjaergaardM
- 17N. MukauM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 7D. BakwaF
- 1A. VallesG
- 2H. BellerinD
- 5M. BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 23J. FirpoD
- 6F. BernalM
- 8P. FornalsM
- 7AntonyM
- 22IscoM
- 17R. RiquelmeM
- 19T. ParrottF
- 13D. CondeG
- 31M. GonzalezG
- 16V. GomezD
- 11F. GarciaD
- 12A. OrtizD
- 21M. RocaM
- 18N. DeossaM
- 25D. CeballosM
- 15A. FidalgoM
Form going into Lille vs Real Betis
Lille
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026
Real Betis
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Betis won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Real Betis won 3–2 at Lille. The model had leaned towards a win for Lille at 38% and given a win for Real Betis 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Ueda 12' for Lille, M. Bartra 33' for Real Betis, Alexsandro 36' for Lille, M. Bartra 49' for Real Betis, T. Parrott 53' for Real Betis. Sent off: Ethan Mbappé (Lille) 56'. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.80.
How the call on Lille v Real Betis has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lille win38%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Real Betis win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.