Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Borussia Dortmund, 27% draw, 24% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22J. GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 24D. SvenssonD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 14M. BeierM
- 19K. KaretsasF
- 20M. SabitzerF
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 33A. MeyerG
- 30P. DrewesG
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 36K. PratesD
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 40S. InacioF
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 21F. SilvaF
- 25P. GulacsiG
- 15S. MourinoD
- 6P. NavarroD
- 12R. VeigaD
- 23S. CardonaD
- 14S. ComesanaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 24N. SalibaM
- 21T. OluwaseyiM
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 1Luiz JuniorG
- 13R. GomezG
- 2L. CostaD
- 3A. FreemanD
- 10A. MoleiroM
- 5A. DiattaM
- 16C. MaciaM
- 7G. MorenoF
- 19N. PepeF
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- S. Guirassy40
Villarreal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat Villarreal 3–2. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: R. Veiga (own goal) 53' for Borussia Dortmund, S. Mourino 66' for Villarreal, S. Guirassy 80' for Borussia Dortmund, S. Guirassy (penalty) 85' for Borussia Dortmund, S. Guirassy (own goal) 90' for Villarreal. On expected goals it finished 2.83–1.34.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win49%▲ +8
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Villarreal win24%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.