Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Borussia Dortmund, 27% draw, 24% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
Villarreal
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table