Lahti vs Mariehamn Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lahti, 32% draw, 28% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lahti at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lahti vs Mariehamn
Line-ups
- 31O. MaukonenG
- 27R. YapiD
- 5NícolasD
- 4J. MullerD
- 25T. InkinenD
- 8Tòfol MontielM
- 18Y. CassubieM
- 10O. KoskinenM
- 77M. SarrF
- 9A. LindholmF
- 11Martim FerreiraF
- 12A. HakalaG
- 6V. VehkonenD
- 7D. HeikkinenM
- 14E. AnderssonM
- 20J. OjanenF
- 28A. KabashiM
- 17A. BelabidF
- 41Aleksi PaalanenF
- 44L. JarvinenF
- 1K. LundG
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 53F. GyamfiD
- 31Samson NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundM
- 8J. van der HeydenM
- 20E. PatutM
- 14Arvid BergvikM
- 11J. SvedbergF
- 19T. JakobsenF
- 26M. JanssonM
- 18A. StroudD
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 12O. HeinoG
- 43L. AnderssonF
- 64M. HyvönenM
Form going into Lahti vs Mariehamn
Lahti
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
Mariehamn
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lahti vs Mariehamn
- 8 September 2026Lahti 2–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 20 July 2026Mariehamn 0–2 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 26 May 2026Mariehamn 0–1 LahtiSuomen Cup
- 10 May 2026Lahti 1–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 5 March 2026Mariehamn 4–0 LahtiLeague Cup
- 19 September 2024Lahti 2–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Lahti and Mariehamn
Lahti
- Martim Ferreira3 goals1 assists
Mariehamn
No player in Veikkausliiga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.