Lahti vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lahti, 32% draw, 28% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Finnish Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lahti at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lahti vs Mariehamn
Line-ups
- 31O. MaukonenG
- 27R. YapiD
- 5NícolasD
- 4J. MullerD
- 25T. InkinenD
- 8Tòfol MontielM
- 18Y. CassubieM
- 10O. KoskinenM
- 77M. SarrF
- 9A. LindholmF
- 11Martim FerreiraF
- 12A. HakalaG
- 6V. VehkonenD
- 7D. HeikkinenM
- 14E. AnderssonM
- 20J. OjanenF
- 28A. KabashiM
- 17A. BelabidF
- 41Aleksi PaalanenF
- 44L. JarvinenF
- 1K. LundG
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 53F. GyamfiD
- 31Samson NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundM
- 8J. van der HeydenM
- 20E. PatutM
- 14Arvid BergvikM
- 11J. SvedbergF
- 19T. JakobsenF
- 26M. JanssonM
- 18A. StroudD
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 12O. HeinoG
- 43L. AnderssonF
- 64M. HyvönenM
Form going into Lahti vs Mariehamn
Lahti
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026
Mariehamn
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026
What these results say
- Lahti scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Mariehamn won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Mariehamn scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mariehamn had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lahti vs Mariehamn
- 20 July 2026Mariehamn 0–2 LahtiFinnish Premier League
- 26 May 2026Mariehamn 0–1 LahtiSuomen Cup
- 10 May 2026Lahti 1–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 5 March 2026Mariehamn 4–0 LahtiLeague Cup
- 19 September 2024Lahti 2–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Lahti and Mariehamn
Lahti
GoalsAssists
- Martim Ferreira51
- O. Koskinen32
- A. Lindholm30
Mariehamn
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lahti beat Mariehamn 2–1. The model had made a win for Lahti its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Aaron Lindholm 38' for Lahti, Adam Stroud 65' for Mariehamn, Justus Ojanen 87' for Lahti.