Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Club Brugge KV 2-3 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Club Brugge KV, 27% draw, 28% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Brugge KV at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. SommerG
- 64K. SabbeD
- 3Lee Han-BeomD
- 44B. MecheleD
- 65J. SeysD
- 8F. PottsM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 9C. ForbsM
- 10H. VetlesenM
- 11J. VirgiliM
- 7N. TresoldiF
- 29N. JackersG
- 81A. Vanden DriesscheG
- 41H. SiquetD
- 58J. SpileersD
- 54S. CoulibalyD
- 16C. TsawaM
- 27W. MikeF
- 62L. Audoor
- 80F. LemarechalM
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 3V. LindelofD
- 14P. TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 35Joao GomesM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendiaM
- 53G. HemmingsM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 40M. BizotG
- 42J. WrightG
- 5T. MingsD
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 26L. BogardeM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 47AlyssonF
- 18T. AbrahamF
Form going into Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa
Club Brugge KV
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Lommel United4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gent30 August 2026
- W1-0Cercle Brugge23 August 2026
- W3-0away to OH Leuven15 August 2026
- W3-0Kortrijk7 August 2026
Aston Villa
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Brugge KV scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Brugge KV won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Brugge KV kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Club Brugge KV and Aston Villa
Club Brugge KV
GoalsAssists
- N. Tresoldi40
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa won 3–2 at Club Brugge KV. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Brugge KV at 45% and given a win for Aston Villa 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. McGinn 11' for Aston Villa, H. Vetlesen 19' for Club Brugge KV, E. Buendia 22' for Aston Villa, N. Jackson 43' for Aston Villa, N. Tresoldi (penalty) 61' for Club Brugge KV. On expected goals it finished 1.53–3.22.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.