Ilves vs FF Jaro Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 2-0 FF Jaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Ilves, 26% draw, 18% FF Jaro — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ilves vs FF Jaro
Line-ups
- 12F. KrkalićG
- 13K. WalliusD
- 24V. KumpuD
- 5S. VäisänenD
- 3M. RaleD
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 8M. StjopinM
- 15L. Ala-MyllymäkiM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 28J. KiloM
- 9T. HytönenF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 19Goudouss BambaD
- 17S. BaranovF
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 6Y. RaapM
- 33Y. SackoM
- 25S. SuvanneD
- 1S. VitsG
- 21J. MyrevikD
- 25G. KocsisD
- 4M. OgungbaroD
- 19F. Østigård NessD
- 16A. VidjeskogM
- 7J. SkauM
- 5A. BjonbäckM
- 27J. VikstromM
- 77A. SabriyeM
- 9L. ZetterströmF
- 20T. SoderstromD
- 91V. VuorinenM
- 12Joas SnellmanG
- 26M. PedersenM
- 24V. LofsM
- 2F. KassD
- 8Oliver Kass KawoM
- 18E. HolmängF
Form going into Ilves vs FF Jaro
Ilves
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
FF Jaro
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
- L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ilves vs FF Jaro
- 8 September 2026Ilves 2–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 4 July 2026FF Jaro 2–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 17 June 2026Ilves 5–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 31 January 2026Ilves 4–2 FF JaroLeague Cup
- 20 July 2025FF Jaro 0–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 12 April 2025Ilves 2–1 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Ilves and FF Jaro
Ilves
- T. Hytönen6 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.