FC Porto vs Manchester City UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Porto, 28% draw, 34% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99D. CostaG
- 20A. CostaD
- 18N. PerezD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 52M. FernandesD
- 13P. RosarioM
- 22A. VarelaM
- 10G. VeigaM
- 7William GomesF
- 19Andre SilvaF
- 11PepêF
- 14Claudio RamosG
- 24J. CostaG
- 33SouzaD
- 74F. MouraD
- 64L. GomesD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 92J. TeixeiraM
- 58T. Silva
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27M. NunesD
- 6M. GuehiD
- 3R. DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 32A. BouaddiM
- 17E. FernandezM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 13M. BettinelliG
- 28G. RulliG
- 21R. Ait-NouriD
- 82R. LewisD
- 22Vitor ReisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 56R. McAidooF
- 8M. KovacicM
- 5E. AndersonM
Form going into FC Porto vs Manchester City
FC Porto
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
- W2-0Alverca9 August 2026
Manchester City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Manchester City
FC Porto
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland40
- P. Foden31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City won 2–0 at FC Porto. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto at 38% and given a win for Manchester City 34%. The goals: E. Haaland 47' for Manchester City, E. Haaland 90' for Manchester City. On expected goals it finished 0.28–2.32.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.