FC Porto vs Manchester City UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 0-2 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Porto, 28% draw, 34% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Porto vs Manchester City
FC Porto
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
- W2-0Alverca9 August 2026
Manchester City
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table