VfL Wolfsburg
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
The model makes it 62% VfL Wolfsburg, 23% draw, 15% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 1.93, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.85.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 3 March 2012FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 24 September 2011VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 FC KaiserslauternBundesliga
- 7 May 2011VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 FC KaiserslauternBundesliga
- 11 December 2010FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
The two sides
VfL Wolfsburg carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.67 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.85 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.92 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.77 and 1.11.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 0.85 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.11 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.