Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 0-0 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bahia, 23% draw, 31% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bahia at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 31R. GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 7AdemirM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 11RodrigoM
- 12Willian JoseF
- 9A. VelizF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 15Michel AraujoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 4KanuD
- 3M. MorenoD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 3Tche TcheM
- 8JairM
- 28AdsonM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 7DavidM
- 20BrennerF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 37PabloG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10J. RojasF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 77C. SpinelliF
Form going into Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Bahia
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
What these results say
- Bahia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bahia had two goals or fewer.
- Bahia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
- 12 February 2026Vasco da Gama 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 23 November 2025Bahia 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 24 September 2025Vasco da Gama 3–1 BahiaSerie A
- 29 October 2024Vasco da Gama 3–2 BahiaSerie A
- 27 June 2024Bahia 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Vasco da Gama
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bahia and Vasco da Gama drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 46% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.53–0.65.