Bahia
vs
Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 48% Bahia, 24% draw, 28% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bahia 1.86, Vasco da Gama 1.37.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bahia
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
- W2-1Botafogo30 May 2026
Vasco da Gama
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 July 2026
- L0-1Atletico Mineiro31 May 2026
- L0-3RB Bragantino24 May 2026
- L1-4away to Internacional16 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
- 12 February 2026Vasco da Gama 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 23 November 2025Bahia 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 24 September 2025Vasco da Gama 3–1 BahiaSerie A
- 29 October 2024Vasco da Gama 3–2 BahiaSerie A
- 27 June 2024Bahia 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 3 September 2023Bahia 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers
Bahia
- Luciano Juba7 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bahia carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.79 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Bahia W-W-D-D-D; Vasco da Gama L-L-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Bahia and 1.37 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bahia rate 0.88 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.99 and 1.12.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bahia a 0.1% chance of the title and Vasco da Gama 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bahia against 1.37 for Vasco da Gama. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.12 for Vasco da Gama.