Botafogo
vs
Fluminense
The model makes it 25% Botafogo, 23% draw, 52% Fluminense — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.32, Fluminense 1.97.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botafogo
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
- W2-1Santos16 July 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia30 May 2026
- D1-1away to Sao Paulo23 May 2026
Fluminense
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
- D1-1away to Cruzeiro31 May 2026
- L0-1away to Mirassol23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Fluminense
- 12 February 2026Fluminense 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Botafogo 0–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
- 28 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Botafogo 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 30 January 2025Botafogo 2–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
- 21 September 2024Fluminense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.91 for Fluminense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botafogo D-L-W-D-W; Fluminense L-D-D-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Botafogo and 1.97 for Fluminense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.80 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fluminense rate 0.97 and 0.87.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botafogo a 0% chance of the title and Fluminense 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Botafogo against 1.97 for Fluminense. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.87 for Fluminense.