Botafogo vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 1-1 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Botafogo, 23% draw, 52% Fluminense — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17WarlesonG
- 2VitinhoD
- 34Gabriel JustinoD
- 5Nahuel FerraresiD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 6Cristian MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 77Lucas VillalbaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 14Jordan BarreraM
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 29PaulinhoD
- 9DaniloF
- 79Lucas EmanuelF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 33Lucas MonzónD
- 4Mateo PonteD
- 21MarçalD
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnácioD
- 44JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 94OtávioM
- 16NonatoM
- 30Yeferson SoteldoM
- 10GansoM
- 90Kevin SernaM
- 19Rodrigo CastilloF
- 35HérculesM
- 17Agustín CanobbioF
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 11Jefferson SavarinoF
- 7HulkF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 23GugaD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
Form going into Botafogo vs Fluminense
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Fluminense
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Fluminense
- 12 February 2026Fluminense 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 1 February 2026Botafogo 0–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
- 28 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 27 April 2025Botafogo 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 30 January 2025Botafogo 2–1 FluminenseCarioca - 1
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Fluminense
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo and Fluminense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fluminense at 52% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alex Telles 44' for Botafogo, Ignacio 58' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.94.