Rayo Vallecano
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Elche
The model makes it 47% Rayo Vallecano, 26% draw, 27% Elche — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.71, Elche 1.17.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Rayo Vallecano are 13th on 8 points from 7 games; Elche are 18th on 6 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Osasuna.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Celta Vigo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rayo Vallecano at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
Elche
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
What these results say
- Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Rayo Vallecano.
- Elche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rayo Vallecano
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Elche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche
- 3 April 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 21 December 2025Elche 4–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 29 April 2023Elche 4–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 3 October 2022Rayo Vallecano 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 18 February 2022Elche 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 17 October 2021Rayo Vallecano 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Elche
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello71
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rayo Vallecano carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.76 for Elche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Elche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rayo Vallecano rate 0.93 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Elche rate 0.95 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rayo Vallecano the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 1.17 for Elche. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.13 for Elche.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rayo Vallecano at home · Elche away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Rayo VallecanoElche
Rayo Vallecano are 8th after 7 La Liga matches (between 8th and 19th so far); Elche are 17th after 8 (between 7th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Rayo Vallecano 7, Elche 8.
Rayo Vallecano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Elche have let in 0 there.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Rayo Vallecano have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rayo Vallecano
- vs Celta Vigo31 Oct · La Ligawin 39%
- at Real Sociedad8 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Valencia22 Nov · La Ligawin 47%
- at Real Betis29 Nov · La Ligawin 18%
Elche
- vs Valencia1 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
- vs Real Betis8 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- at Levante22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Atletico Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.