Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Levante
The model makes it 43% Deportivo La Coruna, 28% draw, 29% Levante — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.71, Levante 1.17.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo La Coruna are 7th on 10 points from 7 games; Levante are 17th on 5 points from 6 games — La Liga.
- Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Real Betis.
- Levante are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Villarreal.
- Last 6 meetings: Levante 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2025, ended Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Levante.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
Levante
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo La Coruna.
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
- 25 January 2025Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 LevanteSegunda División
- 24 October 2024Levante 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 27 January 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–2 LevanteLa Liga
- 26 August 2017Levante 2–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 March 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 7 November 2015Levante 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Levante
- Brugui3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.78 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.17 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.95 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 0.97 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.17 for Levante. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.11 for Levante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo La Coruna at home · Levante away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Deportivo La Coruna 7, Levante 6.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Levante have let in 3 there.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo La Coruna
- at Atletico Madrid25 Oct · La Ligawin 21%
- vs Osasuna1 Nov · La Ligawin 47%
- at Espanyol8 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Alaves22 Nov · La Ligawin 30%
Levante
- vs Athletic Club21 Oct · La Ligawin 38%
- at Real Sociedad25 Oct · La Ligawin 27%
- vs Atletico Madrid1 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- at Celta Vigo8 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.