Villarreal
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 2–1 Elche
The model makes it 54% Villarreal, 24% draw, 22% Elche — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Villarreal 2.60, Elche 1.21.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Villarreal are 9th on 8 points from 7 games; Elche are 18th on 5 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Levante.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Espanyol.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Villarreal 2–1 Elche.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Elche
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Elche
Villarreal
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
Elche
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
- Elche scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Elche.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Elche
- 8 March 2026Villarreal 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Elche 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 February 2023Elche 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 September 2022Villarreal 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 16 January 2022Elche 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 22 September 2021Villarreal 4–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Elche
Villarreal
- P. Gueye3 goals
- Alberto Moleiro2 goals3 assists
Elche
- Fer Niño5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.78 for Elche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.60 goals for Villarreal and 1.21 for Elche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.36 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Elche rate 1.02 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Villarreal a 0.4% chance of the title and Elche 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.21 for Elche. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.18 for Elche.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Elche away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Villarreal 7, Elche 7.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Elche have let in 4 there.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Villarreal have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- at Liverpool20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- at Valencia25 Oct · La Ligawin 42%
- vs Espanyol1 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
Elche
- at Rayo Vallecano25 Oct · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Valencia1 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- vs Real Betis8 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- at Levante22 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.