Valencia
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Valencia 1–2 Villarreal
The model makes it 28% Valencia, 27% draw, 45% Villarreal — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Valencia 1.20, Villarreal 1.63.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Villarreal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Valencia are 19th on 5 points from 8 games; Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Racing Santander.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Madrid.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Villarreal 2–1 Valencia.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valencia vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valencia vs Villarreal
Valencia
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
Villarreal
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
What these results say
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Valencia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Villarreal
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Villarreal
Valencia and Villarreal have met 6 times in the records we hold, Villarreal has won 3 of them to Valencia's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Villarreal won the last one 2–1 on 22 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Villarreal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Feb 2026
La LigaVillarreal 2–1 Valencia - 25 Oct 2025
La LigaValencia 0–2 Villarreal - 15 Feb 2025
La LigaVillarreal 1–1 Valencia - 31 Aug 2024
La LigaValencia 1–1 Villarreal - 17 Mar 2024
La LigaVillarreal 1–0 Valencia - 2 Jan 2024
La LigaValencia 3–1 Villarreal
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0.81 | 1.03 |
| Villarreal | 1.29 | 0.91 |
Leading scorers: Valencia and Villarreal
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Villarreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Gueye30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Valencia carry a model rating of 6.73 against 7.03 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Valencia and 1.63 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valencia rate 0.81 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.29 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valencia a 0% chance of the title and Villarreal 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Valencia against 1.63 for Villarreal. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.91 for Villarreal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valencia at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ValenciaVillarreal
Valencia are 19th after 8 La Liga matches (between 11th and 20th so far); Villarreal are 10th after 8 (between 4th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Valencia 8, Villarreal 8.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Valencia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valencia
- at Elche1 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Real Madrid7 Nov · La Ligawin 18%
- at Rayo Vallecano22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Osasuna29 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
Villarreal
- vs Espanyol30 Oct · La Ligawin 59%
- vs Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Getafe8 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.