Racing Santander
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Racing Santander 2–1 Espanyol
The model makes it 39% Racing Santander, 25% draw, 36% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.76, Espanyol 1.65.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Racing Santander and Espanyol are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Racing Santander are 15th on 8 points from 8 games; Espanyol are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Racing Santander are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Valencia.
- Espanyol are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Malaga.
- Last 6 meetings: Espanyol 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 February 2024, ended Racing Santander 2–0 Espanyol.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Racing Santander vs Espanyol
Racing Santander
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
Espanyol
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Racing Santander failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Racing Santander
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
Espanyol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Racing Santander
Espanyol and Racing Santander have met 6 times in the records we hold, Espanyol has won 3 of them to Racing Santander's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Racing Santander won the last one 2–0 on 10 Feb 2024.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Racing Santander | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 Feb 2024
Segunda DivisiónRacing Santander 2–0 Espanyol - 19 Aug 2023
Segunda DivisiónEspanyol 2–0 Racing Santander - 19 Mar 2012
La LigaEspanyol 3–1 Racing Santander - 22 Oct 2011
La LigaRacing Santander 0–1 Espanyol - 3 Apr 2011
La LigaEspanyol 1–2 Racing Santander - 14 Nov 2010
La LigaRacing Santander 0–0 Espanyol
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Racing Santander | 1.08 | 1.60 |
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Espanyol
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri70
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Racing Santander carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.77 for Espanyol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Racing Santander and 1.65 for Espanyol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Santander rate 1.08 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Espanyol rate 0.84 and 1.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Espanyol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Racing Santander against 1.65 for Espanyol. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1 for Espanyol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Racing Santander at home · Espanyol away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Racing SantanderEspanyol
Racing Santander are 15th after 8 La Liga matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Espanyol are 11th after 8 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Racing Santander 8, Espanyol 8.
Racing Santander score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Espanyol have let in 0 there.
Espanyol score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Racing Santander have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Racing Santander
- vs Real Madrid1 Nov · La Ligawin 14%
- at Malaga7 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Real Sociedad22 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Levante29 Nov · La Ligawin 23%
Espanyol
- at Villarreal30 Oct · La Ligawin 18%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna7 Nov · La Ligawin 40%
- at Athletic Club22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Getafe29 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.