Espanyol
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Espanyol 1–2 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 28% Espanyol, 28% draw, 44% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Espanyol 1.11, Atletico Madrid 1.72.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Espanyol are 15th on 7 points from 7 games; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 16 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Elche.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Real Madrid.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Atletico Madrid 4–2 Espanyol.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
Espanyol
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
- W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
- W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
What these results say
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
- 21 February 2026Atletico Madrid 4–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Espanyol 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 29 March 2025Espanyol 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 28 August 2024Atletico Madrid 0–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 May 2023Espanyol 3–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 6 November 2022Atletico Madrid 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Atletico Madrid
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández6 goals
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena4 goals1 assist
- J. David3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Espanyol carry a model rating of 6.77 against 7.13 for Atletico Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Espanyol and 1.72 for Atletico Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Espanyol rate 0.86 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Madrid rate 1.39 and 0.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Espanyol a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Madrid 8.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Espanyol against 1.72 for Atletico Madrid. Espanyol's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.8 for Atletico Madrid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Espanyol at home · Atletico Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Espanyol 7, Atletico Madrid 7.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Espanyol have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Espanyol
- at Racing Santander25 Oct · La Ligawin 36%
- at Villarreal1 Nov · La Ligawin 22%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna8 Nov · La Ligawin 38%
- at Athletic Club22 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
Atletico Madrid
- at VfB Stuttgart20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna25 Oct · La Ligawin 54%
- at Levante1 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.