Valencia
vs
Athletic Club
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Valencia 1–0 Athletic Club
The model makes it 35% Valencia, 31% draw, 34% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Valencia 1.18, Athletic Club 1.16.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Valencia and Athletic Club are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Valencia are 19th on 4 points from 7 games; Athletic Club are 10th on 8 points from 6 games — La Liga.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Real Sociedad.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Alaves.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Valencia vs Athletic Club
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valencia at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valencia vs Athletic Club
Valencia
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
Athletic Club
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
What these results say
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Athletic Club had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Athletic Club
- 10 May 2026Athletic Club 0–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 4 February 2026Valencia 1–2 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
- 20 September 2025Valencia 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Valencia 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 28 August 2024Athletic Club 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 20 January 2024Valencia 1–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valencia carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.85 for Athletic Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Valencia and 1.16 for Athletic Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valencia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club rate 0.91 and 0.91.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Athletic Club, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valencia the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Valencia against 1.16 for Athletic Club. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.91 for Athletic Club.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valencia at home · Athletic Club away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Valencia 7, Athletic Club 6.
Valencia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Athletic Club have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Valencia
- vs Villarreal25 Oct · La Ligawin 30%
- at Elche1 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Real Madrid8 Nov · La Ligawin 22%
- at Rayo Vallecano22 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
Athletic Club
- at Levante21 Oct · La Ligawin 33%
- vs Getafe25 Oct · La Ligawin 41%
- vs Real Sociedad1 Nov · La Ligawin 40%
- at Osasuna8 Nov · La Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.