Wisla Plock
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Plock 0–1 Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 33% Wisla Plock, 28% draw, 39% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.28, Piast Gliwice 1.42.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Piast Gliwice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wisla Plock are 13th on 11 points from 9 games; Piast Gliwice are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Plock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Piast Gliwice have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Widzew Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Piast Gliwice 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla Plock.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
Piast Gliwice
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wisla Plock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Piast Gliwice
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice
- 9 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 1 August 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 16 April 2023Piast Gliwice 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 30 September 2022Wisla Plock 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 February 2022Wisla Plock 0–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 14 August 2021Piast Gliwice 4–3 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Leandro Sanca41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wisla Plock carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.65 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Wisla Plock and 1.42 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Plock rate 0.60 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.86 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Plock a 0% chance of the title and Piast Gliwice 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wisla Plock against 1.42 for Piast Gliwice. Wisla Plock's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.29 for Piast Gliwice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wisla Plock at home · Piast Gliwice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Plock 9, Piast Gliwice 10.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Plock
- at Motor Lublin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Legia Warszawa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- at Gornik Zabrze28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 15%
Piast Gliwice
- at Slask Wroclaw7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Raków Częstochowa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.