Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban Super League prediction & result
Final score: Chengdu Better City 2-1 Shenyang Urban.
Before kick-off the model made it 78% Chengdu Better City, 13% draw, 9% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chengdu Better City at 78% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Liu DianzuoG
- 4He YiranD
- 18Han PengfeiD
- 22Y. LiD
- 2H. HuD
- 16Yang Ming-YangM
- 5Matheus JussaM
- 11Wellington SilvaM
- 20Wang ZimingM
- 7Wei ShihaoM
- 9Felipe SilvaF
- 1Jian TaoG
- 28E. SorokinD
- 19Y. DongD
- 3A. C. JojoD
- 17Wang DongshengD
- 25Muzepper MurahmetjanM
- 23Liao LishengM
- 10RomuloM
- 39Gan ChaoM
- 29Zhang YanG
- 34H. ZhangD
- 26Yuan MinchengD
- 15FelipeD
- 5D. MawlanniyazM
- 18Li TixiangM
- 8Yan DinghaoM
- 35Li HaoranM
- 10T. KunimotoF
- 47JeffinhoF
- 7A. KouameF
- 13J. XieG
- 28Xu DongD
- 3Pan XimingD
- 27Gao JiarunD
- 33Tian YinongM
- 36Tian DeaoM
- 30Pang ShenghanD
- 22G. LiuF
- 17Tian YudaF
Form going into Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban
Chengdu Better City
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
Shenyang Urban
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
- L1-2Sichuan Jiuniu15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 52 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Chengdu Better City and Shenyang Urban
Chengdu Better City
- Felipe17 goals3 assists
- Wellington Silva9 goals6 assists
- Wei Shihao9 goals4 assists
Shenyang Urban
- Jeffinho10 goals2 assists
- G. Mbenza9 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.