Tianjin Teda
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League prediction
The model makes it 42% Tianjin Teda, 35% draw, 23% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 2.38, 2.86 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tianjin Teda 1.00, Qingdao Youth Island 0.67.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Tianjin Teda
- L1-2away to Shandong Luneng9 August 2026
- W3-2Yunnan Yukun1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Qingdao Jonoon25 July 2026
- W2-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 July 2026
- W3-0Sichuan Jiuniu4 July 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
- W2-0Qingdao Jonoon2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Shenyang Urban25 July 2026
- D1-1Chengdu Better City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles9 goals4 assists
Qingdao Youth Island
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tianjin Teda carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.42 for Qingdao Youth Island. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Tianjin Teda W-W-W-W-L; Qingdao Youth Island D-W-W-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.67 for Qingdao Youth Island. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tianjin Teda rate 0.53 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.30 and 1.00.
That points to 24% for over two and a half goals and 32% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (19%), 1-0 (18%), 1-1 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Qingdao Youth Island, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tianjin Teda the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for Tianjin Teda against 0.67 for Qingdao Youth Island. Tianjin Teda's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/1 for Qingdao Youth Island.