Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island Super League prediction & result
Final score: Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Tianjin Teda, 35% draw, 28% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 2.70, 2.86 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tianjin Teda at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Yan BingliangG
- 29Ba DunD
- 11Xie WeijunD
- 18A. CordobaD
- 4Yang FanD
- 31Sun Ming-HimD
- 30Wang QiumingM
- 14Huang JiahuiM
- 10C. SalvadorM
- 9A. QuilesF
- 8XadasF
- 21Qi YuxiG
- 3Wang ZhenghaoD
- 6Wang XianjunD
- 20Ji ShengpanF
- 17Wu XinghanD
- 28Guo HaoM
- 24Chen ZhexuanD
- 22Li YongjiaM
- 16Liu ShuaiM
- 16H. LiG
- 19Dong YuD
- 5S. MemisevicD
- 2Bruno VianaD
- 22Wang GengruiD
- 28Zhang ChengdongM
- 10N. Da LuzM
- 8X. ZhangM
- 21Meng JingchaoM
- 35Nan SongM
- 11DavidsonF
- 37Dong HangG
- 36Sun JieD
- 32Ding HaifengD
- 15Wang PengD
- 20He LonghaiM
- 4Lohman ElnizarD
- 18B. BraunshtainM
- 31Xie AlexanderM
- 29Jia WeiweiF
Form going into Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island
Tianjin Teda
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
- L2-4Beijing Guoan15 August 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
- W2-0Shandong Luneng22 August 2026
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles10 goals4 assists
Qingdao Youth Island
- Davidson9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.