Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result
Final score: Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Hangzhou Greentown, 21% draw, 54% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 4.00, 4.76 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yunnan Yukun at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Zhao BoG
- 25Xu JunchiD
- 5Liu HaofanD
- 36L. PossignoloD
- 26Sun GuowenD
- 22Cheng JinM
- 4Park Jin-SeobM
- 7Tao QianglongM
- 10M. TolicM
- 28A. MitritaM
- 11Y. WangF
- 1Dong ChunyuG
- 32Huo ShenpingG
- 3Wang YangD
- 17Wang ShiqinD
- 38A. ZhangD
- 8A. N'DoumbouM
- 29Zhang JiaqiM
- 14Wu WeiM
- 6Bao ShengxinM
- 1Bao YaxiongG
- 26Zhang ChenliangD
- 18Yi TengD
- 33A. BurcaD
- 3Tsui Wang-KitD
- 10A. Ionita IIM
- 8Xu XinM
- 7Ye ChuguiM
- 39Abdusalam BunyaminF
- 30J. Saeter
- 11O. Taty MarituF
- 23Wang ZhifengG
- 24Yu JianxianG
- 5Shi KeD
- 27Han ZilongM
- 2Hu RuibaoD
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
- 6Zhao YuhaoM
- 17Sun XuelongM
- 22Duan LiuyuM
Form going into Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun
Hangzhou Greentown
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
- L2-3Chengdu Better City15 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 31 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun
Hangzhou Greentown
- A. Mitriță10 goals12 assists
- M. Tolić9 goals6 assists
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu20 goals8 assists
- Cléber12 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.