Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Super League prediction & result
Final score: Henan Jianye 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Henan Jianye, 29% draw, 26% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Henan Jianye at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Shi ChenglongG
- 4Shinar YeljanD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 22Huang RuifengD
- 6Wang ShangyuanM
- 21He ChaoM
- 8Pedro MaranhaoM
- 10Bruno NazarioM
- 7Zhong YihaoM
- 9GustavoF
- 18Wang GuomingG
- 17Wang JinshuaiG
- 5Liu JiahuiD
- 27Liu YixinD
- 3O. GerbigD
- 24Yin CongyaoF
- 25Yang YilinM
- 16Yang KuoD
- 13A. AbudulamM
- 31Wu ZitongG
- 15Chen ChunxinD
- 38Ruan QilongD
- 6Jin PengxiangD
- 3Zhang YingkaiD
- 37Wei SuoweiD
- 21Liu JialeM
- 16Zhang ZhixiongM
- 27Wu YongqiangM
- 19Du YuezhengF
- 7Xiang YuwangF
- 1Yao HaoyangG
- 33LucaoD
- 26He XiaoqiangD
- 32M. NgadeuD
- 4Yue RuijieD
- 10I. AmadouM
- 9G. CimpanuF
- 18Liang WeipengF
- 24Liu MingshiD
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Henan Jianye
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Henan Jianye
- Gustavo13 goals4 assists
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.