Henan Jianye
vs
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League prediction
The model makes it 35% Henan Jianye, 38% draw, 27% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 2.86, 2.63 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (23%).
Expected goals: Henan Jianye 0.82, Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.67.
Both teams to score: 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 19%, under 2.5: 81%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Henan Jianye
- D0-0Qingdao Youth Island9 August 2026
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Shandong Luneng26 July 2026
- W5-1Qingdao Jonoon17 July 2026
- L1-2away to Yunnan Yukun3 July 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Wuhan Three Towns25 July 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Henan Jianye | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Henan Jianye carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.28 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Henan Jianye L-W-W-D-D; Chongqing Tongliang Long D-L-L-L-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Henan Jianye and 0.67 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Henan Jianye rate 0.36 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.30 and 1.20.
That points to 19% for over two and a half goals and 28% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (23%), 1-0 (18%), 0-1 (15%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Henan Jianye against 0.67 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Henan Jianye's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/1.2 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.