9 October 2026, 11:35 UTC

Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan Super League prediction & result

Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao
Referee: Shan Dan'ao, China
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Beijing Guoan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Qingdao Jonoon, 23% draw, 51% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beijing Guoan at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qingdao Jonoon0%Draw1%Beijing Guoan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Fabio Abreu (pen)
32'
⚽Sai Erjini'ao
40'
Uroš Spajić
57'
•Lin Liangming
62'
⚽Fabio Abreuassist: Zhang Yuning
65'
🔁Yang Baiout: Li Lei
65'
🔁Fabio Abreuout: Yang Liyu
65'
🔁Lin Liangmingout: Zhang Xizhe
🔁Lazar Tufegdžićout: Carlos Strandberg
68'
Ruicong Gong
71'
71'
🔁Tze-Nam Yueout: Gang Wang
🔁Zixian Weiout: Hailong Li
78'
🔁Xinyu Liuout: Liu Guobao
78'
78'
🔁Sai Erjini'aoout: Chi Zhongguo
81'
Gang Wang
🔁Yonghao Jinout: Cong Yang
83'
🔁Yangyang Jinout: Liu Jiashen
83'
•Cong Yang
88'
Suda Li
90+5'

Match stats — Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan

35%Possession65%
14Shots12
3On target7
2Corners4

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon
  • 28Pengfei MuG
  • 37Zixian WeiD
  • 4Yangyang JinD
  • 23Long SongD
  • 29Suda LiD
  • 7Yaw YeboahM
  • 20Ruicong GongM
  • 6Malcom EdjoumaM
  • 34Yonghao JinM
  • 9Xinyu LiuF
  • 32Lazar TufegdžićF
Substitutes
  • 10Carlos StrandbergF
  • 16Hailong LiD
  • 21Liu GuobaoM
  • 33Liu JiashenD
  • 22Cong YangF
  • 43Mewlan JapparG
  • 1Jun LiuG
  • 52Yi XinyangD
  • 17Qiao WangD
Coach: Milan Ristic
Beijing Guoan
  • 34Hou SenG
  • 21Tze-Nam YueD
  • 25Uroš SpajićD
  • 5Guilherme RamosD
  • 26Yang BaiD
  • 37Yongjing CaoM
  • 8Aboubacar KonteM
  • 7Sai Erjini'aoM
  • 11Lin LiangmingM
  • 29Fabio AbreuF
  • 9Zhang YuningF
Substitutes
  • 4Li LeiD
  • 17Yang LiyuF
  • 10Zhang XizheM
  • 27Gang WangD
  • 6Chi ZhongguoM
  • 31Shaoziyang LiuG
  • 22Han JiaqiG
  • 30Shuangjie FanD
  • 47Deng JiefuD
Coach: Nick Montgomery

Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan

Qingdao Jonoon

Super League

  • L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026

Beijing Guoan

Super League

  • D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Qingdao Jonoon3064203664-2815
3Beijing Guoan30151055836+2250

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan

  • 15 May 2026Beijing Guoan 4–2 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
  • 26 October 2025Beijing Guoan 2–4 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
  • 17 May 2025Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 19 October 2024Beijing Guoan 6–0 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
  • 21 May 2024Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 22 July 2023Beijing Guoan 2–0 Qingdao JonoonSuper League

Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan

Qingdao Jonoon

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Beijing Guoan

GoalsAssists

  • Zhang Yuning157
  • Fábio Abreu116

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beijing Guoan won 3–0 at Qingdao Jonoon. The model had made a win for Beijing Guoan its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fabio Abreu (penalty) 5' for Beijing Guoan, Sai Erjini'ao 32' for Beijing Guoan, Fabio Abreu 62' for Beijing Guoan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beijing Guoan a 82.2% chance to finish in the top four: 92.0% after a win, 75.9% after a draw, 64.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.0%, 9.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Qingdao Jonoon v Beijing Guoan has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 23% / 51%: the biggest move is Beijing Guoan's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Qingdao Jonoon win26%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Beijing Guoan win51%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.