Qingdao Jonoon
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
Our model says: Qingdao Jonoon 1–2 Beijing Guoan
The model makes it 27% Qingdao Jonoon, 26% draw, 47% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Qingdao Jonoon 1.38, Beijing Guoan 2.18.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Jonoon
- L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026
- L1-5Wuhan Three Towns29 August 2026
- L1-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shandong Luneng14 August 2026
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
Beijing Guoan
- D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dalian Zhixing28 August 2026
- D3-3Yunnan Yukun22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Jonoon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Jonoon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Jonoon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Jonoon
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning12 goals6 assists
- Fábio Abreu9 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Qingdao Jonoon carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.45 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 2.18 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.48 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.68 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon against 2.18 for Beijing Guoan. Qingdao Jonoon's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.52 for Beijing Guoan.