Veres Rivne
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Veres Rivne 0–2 Shakhtar Donetsk
The model makes it 19% Veres Rivne, 27% draw, 54% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 5.26, 3.70 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Veres Rivne 0.77, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.02.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Veres Rivne are 11th on 6 points from 6 games; Shakhtar Donetsk are 2nd on 18 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Veres Rivne are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Karpaty.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to LNZ Cherkasy.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Veres Rivne.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Veres Rivne
- D1-1away to Karpaty20 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk6 September 2026
- W1-0away to LNZ Cherkasy30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 August 2026
- L1-2Dynamo Kyiv9 August 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Karpaty5 September 2026
- L0-2Polessya29 August 2026
- W1-0away to FC Kharkiv16 August 2026
What these results say
- Veres Rivne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Veres Rivne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Veres Rivne had two goals or fewer.
- Shakhtar Donetsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- 27 February 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Veres RivnePremier League
- 17 August 2025Veres Rivne 0–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 6 April 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 Veres RivnePremier League
- 27 September 2024Veres Rivne 1–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 8 December 2023Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Veres RivnePremier League
- 26 September 2023Veres Rivne 0–3 Shakhtar DonetskCup
A clear gap in the ratings
Veres Rivne carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.91 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Veres Rivne and 2.02 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Veres Rivne rate 0.49 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Veres Rivne a 0% chance of the title and Shakhtar Donetsk 69.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Veres Rivne against 2.02 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Veres Rivne's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.97 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Veres Rivne at home · Shakhtar Donetsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Veres Rivne 6, Shakhtar Donetsk 7.
Veres Rivne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Veres Rivne
- at Obolon'-Brovar17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Chornomorets31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Polessya7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs AEK Athens FC14 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at Inter21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 17%
- vs Zorya Luhansk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- at Obolon'-Brovar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.