Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Super League prediction & result
Final score: Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Henan Jianye.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sichuan Jiuniu, 27% draw, 34% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sichuan Jiuniu at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Line-ups
- 13Peng PengG
- 16Miao TangD
- 15Rui YuD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 20Zhijian XuanD
- 6Junsheng YaoM
- 31Deabeas Owusu-SekyereM
- 8Tim ChowM
- 36Eden KarzevM
- 11Albion AdemiM
- 7Wesley MoraesF
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 10Dai Wai TsunM
- 14Li LongM
- 35Minzhe WeiG
- 1Jiabao JiG
- 46Huanming ShenD
- 25Jianfei ZhaoD
- 39Menghui YuM
- 2Tian YifanD
- 33Chenglong ShiG
- 4Yeljan ShinarD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 11Nebijan MuhmetD
- 15Abraham HalikM
- 6Shangyuan WangM
- 29Dalun ZhengM
- 10Bruno NazárioM
- 8MaranhãoM
- 9GustavoF
- 13Abdurasul AbudulamM
- 7Yihao ZhongF
- 25Yilin YangM
- 24Congyao YinF
- 27Yixin LiuD
- 17Jinshuai WangG
- 18Gouming WangG
- 3Oliver GerbigD
- 5Liu JiahuiD
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
Henan Jianye
Super League
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
- 15 May 2026Henan Jianye 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 8 August 2025Henan Jianye 4–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 5 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 13 July 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 5 April 2024Henan Jianye 0–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 28 October 2021Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeFA Cup
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes145
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo156
- Bruno Nazário106
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sichuan Jiuniu at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Nazário 42' for Henan Jianye, Wesley Moraes 47' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Wesley Moraes 52' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Congyao Yin 76' for Henan Jianye. Sent off: Rui Yu (Sichuan Jiuniu) 16'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sichuan Jiuniu a 10.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.5%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
For Henan Jianye the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.0% going in: 3.8% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 27.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sichuan Jiuniu v Henan Jianye has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Sichuan Jiuniu's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sichuan Jiuniu win39%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Henan Jianye win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.