Sichuan Jiuniu
vs
Henan Jianye
Super League prediction
Our model says: Sichuan Jiuniu 2–1 Henan Jianye
The model makes it 37% Sichuan Jiuniu, 29% draw, 34% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.49, Henan Jianye 1.35.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sichuan Jiuniu at 37% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
Henan Jianye
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
What these results say
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye
- 15 May 2026Henan Jianye 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 8 August 2025Henan Jianye 4–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 5 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 13 July 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 5 April 2024Henan Jianye 0–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 28 October 2021Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan JianyeFA Cup
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals5 assists
Henan Jianye
- Gustavo13 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sichuan Jiuniu carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.26 for Henan Jianye. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.35 for Henan Jianye. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.48 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Henan Jianye rate 0.50 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.35 for Henan Jianye. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.64 for Henan Jianye.