Araz
vs
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Araz 2–1 Kapaz
The model makes it 44% Araz, 28% draw, 28% Kapaz — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Araz 1.73, Kapaz 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Araz are bottom on 2 points from 6 games; Kapaz are 7th on 7 points from 5 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Araz have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Şamaxı FK.
- Kapaz have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sumqayıt.
- Last 6 meetings: Araz 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2026, ended Araz 2–0 Kapaz.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Araz vs Kapaz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Araz at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Araz vs Kapaz
Araz
- L1-2away to Şamaxı FK20 September 2026
- D2-2Turan13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Qarabag6 September 2026
- L0-1Sabah FA31 August 2026
- L0-5away to Neftchi Baku23 August 2026
Kapaz
- D1-1Sumqayıt20 September 2026
- W1-0Qabala12 September 2026
- L1-4Şamaxı FK4 September 2026
- W1-0Turan30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sabah FA15 August 2026
What these results say
- Araz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Araz had three goals or more.
- Kapaz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Araz | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 7 | Kapaz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Araz vs Kapaz
- 15 May 2026Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 9 December 2025Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2025Araz 0–1 KapazCup
- 12 September 2025Kapaz 0–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 13 April 2025Kapaz 0–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 10 February 2025Araz 0–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Araz carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.15 for Kapaz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Araz and 1.11 for Kapaz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Araz rate 0.59 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kapaz rate 0.44 and 1.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kapaz, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Araz the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Araz against 1.11 for Kapaz. Araz's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.8 for Kapaz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Araz at home · Kapaz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Araz 6, Kapaz 5.
Araz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Kapaz have let in 2 there.
Kapaz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Araz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Araz
- at Sumqayıt16 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 29%
- vs Qabala23 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 43%
- vs Zira31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 33%
- at Safa Baku7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- vs Neftchi Baku21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 24%
Kapaz
- vs Zira18 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 30%
- at Safa Baku24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 30%
- vs Imisli FK31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- at Neftchi Baku7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.