Chengdu Better City
vs
Tianjin Teda
Super League prediction
Our model says: Chengdu Better City 1–0 Tianjin Teda
The model makes it 46% Chengdu Better City, 28% draw, 26% Tianjin Teda — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chengdu Better City 1.73, Tianjin Teda 1.03.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chengdu Better City at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda
Chengdu Better City
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye6 September 2026
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
Tianjin Teda
- W1-0Shenyang Urban12 September 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
- D1-1Qingdao Youth Island29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wuhan Three Towns22 August 2026
- L2-4Beijing Guoan15 August 2026
What these results say
- Chengdu Better City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tianjin Teda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 52 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda
Chengdu Better City
- Felipe17 goals3 assists
- Wellington Silva9 goals6 assists
- Wei Shihao9 goals4 assists
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles10 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chengdu Better City carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.32 for Tianjin Teda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.03 for Tianjin Teda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chengdu Better City rate 0.63 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tianjin Teda rate 0.49 and 1.45.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chengdu Better City a 100% chance of the title and Tianjin Teda 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chengdu Better City the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Chengdu Better City against 1.03 for Tianjin Teda. Chengdu Better City's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.45 for Tianjin Teda.