HNK Gorica vs Rudes HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 1-2 Rudes.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% HNK Gorica, 26% draw, 22% Rudes — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Gorica at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs Rudes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 2F. BrautM
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 5Gonçalo CostaD
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 25B. BogojevićF
- 10F. BrodićF
- 8J. PranjićF
- 9P. MijićF
- 34I. CvijanovićD
- 50A. ErcegF
- 18B. KardumF
- 71D. MatijašG
- 21H. MoustaphaD
- 24D. PavičićM
- 45S. PerićD
- 30D. ŽarkovG
- 20L. VrzićF
- 95L. RogićG
- 42M. ZebiÄD
- 4V. CeljakD
- 29S. BralićD
- 2B. UnušićD
- 24I. ĐorićM
- 37N. SkokoM
- 27Felipe CurcioD
- 28xaviM
- 78J. FernándesF
- 11J. PoldrugačM
- 26I. ŽutićD
- 35Josip BralicF
- 88S. El HaddadF
- 1Filip HoljevacG
- 7L. IlečićF
- 14T. KolegaF
- 34K. LovrićF
- 33J. PejicM
- 8Luka PopovicM
Form going into HNK Gorica vs Rudes
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
Rudes
All competitions we cover
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Gorica had two goals or fewer.
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs Rudes
- 29 October 2025Rudes 0–6 HNK GoricaCup
- 27 July 2024HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2024HNK Gorica 2–1 RudesHNL
- 4 March 2024Rudes 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 26 November 2023HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesHNL
- 2 September 2023Rudes 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and Rudes
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Rudes
No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rudes won 2–1 at HNK Gorica. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Gorica at 52% and given a win for Rudes 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Noa skoko 37' for Rudes, Junior Fernandes 48' for Rudes, Bruno Bogojević (penalty) 80' for HNK Gorica. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Gorica a 60.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 56.6% after a win, 65.1% after a draw, 67.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.3%, 7 points higher than before the match.
For Rudes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 94.2% going in: 90.7% after a win, 94.5% after a draw, 95.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.7%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on HNK Gorica v Rudes has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is HNK Gorica's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- HNK Gorica win52%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Rudes win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.