HNK Gorica
vs
Rudes
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Gorica 1–0 Rudes
The model makes it 47% HNK Gorica, 28% draw, 25% Rudes — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.77, Rudes 0.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HNK Gorica vs Rudes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Gorica at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Gorica vs Rudes
HNK Gorica
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
Rudes
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Gorica had two goals or fewer.
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs Rudes
- 29 October 2025Rudes 0–6 HNK GoricaCup
- 27 July 2024HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2024HNK Gorica 2–1 RudesHNL
- 4 March 2024Rudes 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 26 November 2023HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesHNL
- 2 September 2023Rudes 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and Rudes
HNK Gorica
- B. Bogojević3 goals
Rudes
- L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Gorica carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.1 for Rudes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for HNK Gorica and 0.96 for Rudes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Gorica rate 0.43 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rudes rate 0.56 and 2.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Gorica the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 0.96 for Rudes. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.62 for Rudes.