10 October 2026, 11:35 UTC

Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result

Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai
Referee: Yige Dai, China
Full time7 – 1

Final score: Shanghai Shenhua 7-1 Yunnan Yukun.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Shanghai Shenhua, 20% draw, 28% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shanghai Shenhua at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shanghai Shenhua99%Draw1%Yunnan Yukun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafael Ratãoassist: João Carlos Teixeira
12'
31'
⚽Cléberassist: Oscar Taty Maritu
•Rafael Ratão
38'
⚽Xie Pengfeiassist: João Carlos Teixeira
43'
46'
🔁Liuyu Duanout: Bunyamin Abdusalam
⚽Jin Shunkaiassist: João Carlos Teixeira
53'
⚽Rafael Ratão
57'
61'
Wang-Kit Tsui
⚽Haijian Wang
62'
66'
🔁Hanwen Dengout: Zichang Huang
🔁Xie Pengfeiout: Haoyang Xu
67'
🔁João Carlos Teixeiraout: Tianyi Gao
67'
⚽Rafael Ratãoassist: Luís Asué
75'
76'
🔁Alexandru Ionițăout: John Hou Sæter
76'
🔁Xin Xuout: Chugui Ye
77'
🔁Oscar Taty Marituout: Yuhao Zhao
🔁Luís Asuéout: Liu Chengyu
79'
🔁Rafael Ratãoout: Jiawen Han
79'
⚽Liu Chengyuassist: Haoyang Xu
81'
🔁Wu Xiout: Zexiang Yang
83'

Match stats — Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun

52%Possession48%
32Shots10
16On target6
10Corners5

Line-ups

Shanghai Shenhua
  • 1Qinghao XueG
  • 13Wilson ManafáD
  • 3Jin ShunkaiD
  • 5Chenjie ZhuD
  • 27Shinichi ChanD
  • 19Luís AsuéM
  • 33Haijian WangM
  • 15Wu XiM
  • 30Xie PengfeiM
  • 10João Carlos TeixeiraF
  • 9Rafael RatãoF
Substitutes
  • 21Haoyang XuM
  • 17Tianyi GaoM
  • 45Jiawen HanM
  • 18Liu ChengyuF
  • 16Zexiang YangD
  • 24Zhen MaG
  • 38Wu QipengD
  • 2Shilong WangD
  • 25Zhu YueD
Coach: Vladan Milojevic
Yunnan Yukun
  • 23Zhifeng WangG
  • 25Hanwen DengD
  • 33Andrei BurcăD
  • 2Ruibao HuD
  • 3Wang-Kit TsuiD
  • 22Liuyu DuanM
  • 8Xin XuM
  • 34Caio ViníciusM
  • 10Alexandru IonițăF
  • 9CléberF
  • 11Oscar Taty MarituF
Substitutes
  • 39Bunyamin AbdusalamF
  • 19Zichang HuangF
  • 7Chugui YeD
  • 30John Hou SæterM
  • 6Yuhao ZhaoM
  • 14Xinghao WangG
  • 1Yaxiong BaoG
  • 16Zhang XiangshuoD
  • 21Zihao YangD
Coach: Jordi Vinyals

Form going into Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun

Shanghai Shenhua

Super League

  • W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026

Yunnan Yukun

Super League

  • W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Shanghai Shenhua30155106750+1740
6Yunnan Yukun30127115961-243

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun

  • 16 May 2026Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
  • 2 August 2025Yunnan Yukun 4–4 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
  • 2 April 2025Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Yunnan YukunSuper League
  • 23 June 2023Yunnan Yukun 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaFA Cup

Leading scorers: Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun

Shanghai Shenhua

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Ratão191

Yunnan Yukun

GoalsAssists

  • O. Maritu239
  • Cléber145

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shanghai Shenhua beat Yunnan Yukun 7–1. The model had made a win for Shanghai Shenhua its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rafael Ratão 12' for Shanghai Shenhua, Cléber 31' for Yunnan Yukun, Xie Pengfei 43' for Shanghai Shenhua, Jin Shunkai 53' for Shanghai Shenhua, Rafael Ratão 57' for Shanghai Shenhua, Haijian Wang 62' for Shanghai Shenhua, Rafael Ratão 75' for Shanghai Shenhua, Liu Chengyu 81' for Shanghai Shenhua.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Yunnan Yukun a 52.2% chance to finish in the top four: 77.8% after a win, 52.4% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.0%, 13.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan Yukun has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 48% / 23% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 20% / 28%: the biggest move is Shanghai Shenhua's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Shanghai Shenhua win52%▲ +4
  2. Draw20%▼ −3
  3. Yunnan Yukun win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.