Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Yunnan Yukun
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shanghai Shenhua 3–2 Yunnan Yukun
The model makes it 48% Shanghai Shenhua, 23% draw, 29% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 2.99, Yunnan Yukun 2.07.
Both teams to score: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%, under 2.5: 12%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shanghai Shenhua at 48% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
Shanghai Shenhua
- W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026
- L2-3Shandong Luneng28 August 2026
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
- L0-6away to Hangzhou Greentown29 August 2026
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
What these results say
- Shanghai Shenhua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Shanghai Shenhua had three goals or more.
- Shanghai Shenhua scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Yunnan Yukun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Yunnan Yukun had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Shanghai Shenhua and Yunnan Yukun
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão15 goals1 assists
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu20 goals8 assists
- Cléber12 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shanghai Shenhua carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.31 for Yunnan Yukun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.99 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 2.07 for Yunnan Yukun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.71 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Yunnan Yukun rate 0.72 and 2.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Yunnan Yukun, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua against 2.07 for Yunnan Yukun. Shanghai Shenhua's attack/defence rating is 0.71/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/2.22 for Yunnan Yukun.