Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Qarabag 2-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Qarabag, 20% draw, 42% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Qarabag (6 Aug) →
Qarabag went through 2–1 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dynamo Kyiv at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv
Line-ups
- 23M. ZlomislicG
- 2Matheus SilvaD
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 55B. HuseynovD
- 44E. CafarquliyevD
- 35Pedro BicalhoM
- 8M. JankovicM
- 20Kady BorgesM
- 7J. MouaddibM
- 21O. KashchukM
- 10A. Zoubir
- 1S. MahammadaliyevG
- 99M. KochalskiG
- 5B. LangaD
- 9J. MontielM
- 13B. MustafazadaD
- 22M. QurbanlyF
- 29R. CephasF
- 32H. CabrayilzadaM
- 49A. BashirovM
- 71V. SurkisG
- 5O. SychD
- 40K. BilovarD
- 32T. MykhavkoD
- 44V. DubinchakD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 15V. RubchynskyiM
- 39E. GuerreroF
- 21J. LonwijkM
- 70B. RedushkoM
- 11M. PonomarenkoF
- 43I. OlkhovyiG
- 10M. ShaparenkoM
- 14P. LyusinM
- 16S. OgundanaM
- 18O. TymchykD
- 22V. KabaevM
- 23N. MalyshD
- 29V. BuyalskyyM
- 66A. ThiareD
Form going into Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabag
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
- D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026
Dynamo Kyiv
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Qarabag6 August 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK30 July 2026
- L2-3PAOK23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Qarabag and Dynamo Kyiv in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Qarabag | Premyer Liqa | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 23 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premyer Liqa · Ukraine Premier League
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv
- 6 August 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Qarabag and Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabag
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Qarabag beat Dynamo Kyiv 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Dynamo Kyiv at 42% and given a win for Qarabag 38%. The goals: J. Mouaddib 12' for Qarabag, O. Kashchuk 69' for Qarabag.