FC Nordsjaelland
vs
Valur Reykjavik
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 87% FC Nordsjaelland, 8% draw, 5% Valur Reykjavik — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 3.88, Valur Reykjavik 0.96.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Nordsjaelland
- W1-0Randers FC2 August 2026
- D1-1away to AC Horsens26 July 2026
Valur Reykjavik
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Nordsjaelland carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.05 for Valur Reykjavik. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Nordsjaelland D-W; Valur Reykjavik W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.88 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.96 for Valur Reykjavik. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.92 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valur Reykjavik rate 0.45 and 2.23.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (8%), 4-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.88 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 0.96 for Valur Reykjavik. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.23 for Valur Reykjavik.