Rīgas FS
vs
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 29% Rīgas FS, 26% draw, 45% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rīgas FS 1.26, FK Jablonec 1.60.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rīgas FS
No earlier matches on record this season.
FK Jablonec
- W1-0Slovácko9 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
Rīgas FS carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.55 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rīgas FS W-W-W-D-L; FK Jablonec W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Rīgas FS and 1.60 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rīgas FS rate 0.53 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.69 and 1.26.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Rīgas FS against 1.6 for FK Jablonec. Rīgas FS's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.26 for FK Jablonec.