Dynamo Kyiv
vs
Qarabag
The model makes it 67% Dynamo Kyiv, 16% draw, 17% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Dynamo Kyiv 3.02, Qarabag 1.57.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Dynamo Kyiv carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.41 for Qarabag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dynamo Kyiv D-L-L; Qarabag W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.02 goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.57 for Qarabag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Kyiv rate 0.82 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qarabag rate 0.78 and 1.95.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Kyiv the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv against 1.57 for Qarabag. Dynamo Kyiv's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.95 for Qarabag.