6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Dynamo Kyiv, 16% draw, 17% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Qarabag v Dynamo Kyiv, 13 Aug →

Qarabag went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo Kyiv at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo Kyiv97%Draw3%Qarabag0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Ponomarenko
10'
Vladyslav Dubinchak
14'
62'
🔁O. Kashchukout: Kady Borges
62'
🔁R. Cephasout: M. Qurbanly
🔁E. Guerreroout: N. Voloshyn
69'
🔁J. Lonwijkout: M. Shaparenko
69'
🔁V. Dubinchakout: O. Tymchyk
69'
75'
🔁E. Cafarquliyevout: B. Langa
75'
🔁Pedro Bicalhoout: S. Lobato
79'
🔁M. Jankovicout: J. Montiel
🔁B. Redushkoout: V. Kabaev
80'
Tomasz Kędziora
81'
🔁V. Rubchynskyiout: O. Pikhalyonok
87'
88'
Cebrail Makreckis
Mykola Shaparenko
90+6'
90+4'
Matheus Silva

Match stats — Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag

39%Possession61%
3On target2
3Corners11

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv 4-2-3-1
  • 71V. SurkisG
  • 5O. SychD
  • 94T. KedzioraD
  • 32T. MykhavkoD
  • 44V. DubinchakD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 15V. RubchynskyiM
  • 39E. GuerreroF
  • 21J. LonwijkM
  • 70B. RedushkoM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 35R. NeshcheretG
  • 43I. OlkhovyiG
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 8O. PikhalyonokM
  • 9N. VoloshynM
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 18O. TymchykD
  • 22V. KabaevM
  • 29V. BuyalskyyM
Coach: Igor Kostyuk
Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 44E. CafarquliyevD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 29R. CephasF
  • 21O. KashchukM
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaM
  • 49A. BashirovM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag

Dynamo Kyiv

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to PAOK30 July 2026
  • L2-3PAOK23 July 2026

Qarabag

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Dynamo Kyiv and Qarabag in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dynamo KyivPremier League11722169+723
4QarabagPremyer Liqa10541148+619

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ukraine Premier League · Premyer Liqa

Leading scorers: Dynamo Kyiv and Qarabag

Dynamo Kyiv

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ponomarenko60

Qarabag

No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo Kyiv beat Qarabag 1–0. The model had made a win for Dynamo Kyiv its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goal: M. Ponomarenko 10' for Dynamo Kyiv. Sent off: Cebrail Makreckis (Qarabag) 88'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.