NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: NSI Runavik 2-2 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% NSI Runavik, 19% draw, 60% FC Lugano — fair odds of 4.76, 5.26 and 1.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: FC Lugano 2–0 NSI Runavik (6 Aug) →
FC Lugano went through 4–2 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano
Line-ups
- 13T. AmosG
- 17J. BenjaminsenD
- 4D. ObbekjaerD
- 3V. DavidsenD
- 12F. DrinicD
- 11M. LindhM
- 29E. W. JoensenM
- 6B. NolsoeM
- 16P. KnudsenM
- 2S. Skytte
- 33M. PrzybylskiF
- 1K. JoensenG
- 30D. DanielsenG
- 5A. F. ElissonD
- 22J. TrondargjogvD
- 10K. OlsenF
- 9T. HestadM
- 28M. DanielsenF
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 18J. BichselD
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgicM
- 24E. PihlstromM
- 27D. Dos SantosF
- 11R. SteffenF
- 91K. BehrensF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 39C. NdiayeG
- 46M. ZanottiD
- 4D. KelvinD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 44CarboneD
- 23G. AjdinM
- 14A. KendouciM
- 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
Form going into NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano
NSI Runavik
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to FC Lugano6 August 2026
- W2-0away to Koper30 July 2026
- L0-2Koper23 July 2026
FC Lugano
All competitions we cover
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: NSI Runavik vs FC Lugano
- 6 August 2026FC Lugano 2–0 NSI RunavikUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: NSI Runavik and FC Lugano
NSI Runavik
No leading scorers listed yet.
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- K. Behrens71
- Y. Cimignani34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NSI Runavik and FC Lugano drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Lugano at 60% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: P. Knudsen 29' for NSI Runavik, M. Lindh 61' for NSI Runavik, Y. Cimignani 66' for FC Lugano, K. Behrens 79' for FC Lugano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.