Santos Laguna
vs
FC Juarez
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 2-1 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Santos Laguna, 27% draw, 23% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.87, FC Juarez 0.91.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez
Santos Laguna
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
FC Juarez
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
- L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
- L1-2Club America22 August 2026
- L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez
- 18 January 2026Santos Laguna 2–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 23 August 2025FC Juarez 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 30 January 2025FC Juarez 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 7 October 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 1 April 2024FC Juarez 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 30 October 2023Santos Laguna 5–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and FC Juarez
Santos Laguna
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
FC Juarez
- Ó. Estupiñán3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Santos Laguna carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.3 for FC Juarez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Santos Laguna and 0.91 for FC Juarez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos Laguna rate 0.67 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Juarez rate 0.57 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 0.91 for FC Juarez. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.72 for FC Juarez.