Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Guadalajara Chivas, 24% draw, 21% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 7L. RomoD
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 30S. SandovalF
- 17R. MarinF
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 5B. GonzalezD
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 16L. ReyD
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 18J. PerezM
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5R. DuarteD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 2P. BennevendoM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 14L. HerreraF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 19J. RivasD
- 24T. LeoneD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 202J. DominguezD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 22A. MedinaF
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
- 6 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 6 October 2025Pumas UNAM 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Pumas UNAM 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 25 February 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho81
- R. Morales44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guadalajara Chivas beat Pumas UNAM 3–0. The model had made a win for Guadalajara Chivas its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Sandoval 3' for Guadalajara Chivas, S. Sandoval 56' for Guadalajara Chivas, B. Gonzalez 67' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.50.
How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Guadalajara Chivas win55%▲ +6
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Pumas UNAM win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.