Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Guadalajara Chivas, 23% draw, 19% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 2.54, Pumas UNAM 0.95.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
- 6 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 6 October 2025Pumas UNAM 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Pumas UNAM 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 25 February 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 4 December 2023Pumas UNAM 3–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Guadalajara Chivas carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.55 for Pumas UNAM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.54 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.95 for Pumas UNAM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guadalajara Chivas rate 1.21 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pumas UNAM rate 0.70 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 28.7% chance of the title and Pumas UNAM 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.95 for Pumas UNAM. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 1.21/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.29 for Pumas UNAM.