Puebla vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Atlante FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Puebla, 30% draw, 24% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Atlante FC
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 20J. PachucaD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 25H. JuradoF
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 12I. MorenoM
- 8O. MorenoF
- 16A. RamírezM
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 29Walter PortalesM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 16José GonzálezM
- 37W. ClarM
- 30M. SarrafioreF
- 7J. JulioF
- 19L. CalzadillaF
- 3G. SánchezD
- 9L. PuenteF
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 25M. FernándezM
- 27A. EscobarD
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 22R. BarraganG
- 14C. AlfaroD
Form going into Puebla vs Atlante FC
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
What these results say
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Atlante FC
- 23 December 2024Atlante FC 1–0 PueblaFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Puebla and Atlante FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Puebla at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Walter Portales 41' for Atlante FC, Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges 53' for Puebla.
How the call on Puebla v Atlante FC has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Puebla's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Puebla win46%▲ +5
- Draw30%=
- Atlante FC win24%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.