16 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Full time1 – 1

Final score: AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% AIK Stockholm, 21% draw, 16% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AIK Stockholm at 63% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm8%Draw89%Mjallby AIF3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Jacob Bergstromassist: Áki Samuelsen
33'
Ali Youssef
Abdihakin Ali
34'
⚽axel kouameassist: Abdihakin Ali
40'
45'
🔁Áki Samuelsenout: Olle Lindberg
60'
Olle Lindberg
70'
🔁Tony Miettinenout: Tom Pettersson
🔁Lucas Assadiout: Sixten Gustafsson
75'
81'
🔁Max Nielsenout: Ian Hoffmann
🔁Sebastian Lund Hausnerout: Wilmer Olofsson
82'
89'
Viktor Gustafson
90+1'
🔁Ali Youssefout: Jeppe Kjaer Jensen

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF

71%Possession29%
22Shots15
7On target7
9Corners5

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 4-3-3
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 20S. HausnerD
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 8J. HoveM
  • 48A. KouameF
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 10L. AssadiF
Substitutes
  • 47L. CamaraD
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 7A. MujanićM
  • 49O. PukelisD
  • 43N. StaykovF
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 44David MalkiM
Coach: Jose Riveiro
Mjallby AIF 3-4-3
  • 13R. WallinderG
  • 33T. MiettinenD
  • 4A. NorénD
  • 5Abdullah IqbalD
  • 14Villiam GranathM
  • 7V. GustafsonM
  • 22J. GustavssonM
  • 25M. NielsenM
  • 23Á. SamuelsenF
  • 18J. BergströmF
  • 9A. YoussefF
Substitutes
  • 26I. HoffmannD
  • 10J. KjærM
  • 29Olle LindbergM
  • 24T. PetterssonD
  • 2L. SvanbergD
  • 27L. TidstrandM
  • 1S. HansenG
  • 6M. EnggårdM
  • 39R. LeanderssonM
Coach: A. Brännström

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF

AIK Stockholm

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
  • W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026

Mjallby AIF

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
  • L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
  • L0-2Djurgardens IF3 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Djurgardens IF31 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg27 August 2026

What these results say

  • AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm had three goals or more.
  • Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8AIK Stockholm2610884245-338
12Mjallby AIF2668123043-1326

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF

  • 11 July 2026Mjallby AIF 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 20 July 2025Mjallby AIF 2–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 11 May 2025AIK Stockholm 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • 11 August 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • 13 April 2024Mjallby AIF 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove103

Mjallby AIF

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bergström100

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AIK Stockholm at 63% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Bergstrom 19' for Mjallby AIF, axel kouame 40' for AIK Stockholm.

How the call on AIK Stockholm v Mjallby AIF has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 59% / 21% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 63% / 21% / 16%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. AIK Stockholm win63%▲ +4
  2. Draw21%=
  3. Mjallby AIF win16%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.