15 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

Leon vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio León, Leon
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Leon 2-0 Atletico San Luis.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Leon, 29% draw, 35% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Leon at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leon99%Draw1%Atletico San Luis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Sebastián Pérez Bouquetout: Leonardo Flores
Jesús Lara
48'
⚽Diber Cambindoassist: Jhohan Romana
49'
🔁Ivan Morenoout: Bryan Colula
67'
🔁Jordi Cortizoout: Jose Alvarado
68'
🔁Jose Rodriguezout: Fernando Beltran
68'
68'
🔁Román Torresout: Benjamín Galdames
68'
🔁David Rodriguezout: Luis Ronaldo Najera Reyna
⚽Diber Cambindoassist: Fernando Beltran
71'
77'
🔁Rafael Llorenteout: Felipe Mora
77'
🔁Sebastien Salles-lamongeout: Roberto Meraz
🔁Diber Cambindoout: Ismael Díaz
80'
81'
Roberto Meraz
🔁Daniel Arcilaout: Edgar Guerra
88'
90+1'
Benjamín Galindo

Match stats — Leon vs Atletico San Luis

42%Possession58%
23Shots12
9On target2
6Corners2

Line-ups

Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23O. GarciaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomanaD
  • 3J. GuevaraD
  • 26S. ReyesD
  • 29I. RodriguezM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 20R. EcheverriaM
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 181I. MartinezG
  • 185C. Mora
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 25P. BellonD
  • 33A. VillegasD
  • 6F. Beltran Cruz
  • 15S. FierroM
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 11I. DiazF
Coach: Javier Gandolfi
Atletico San Luis 3-4-3
  • 25M. G. LajudG
  • 30B. GalindoD
  • 31E. AguilaD
  • 18A. CruzD
  • 2R. TorresM
  • 21O. MaciasM
  • 10S. Salles-LamongeM
  • 17A. DuarteM
  • 22R. LlorenteF
  • 11D. RodriguezF
  • 26S. PerezF
Substitutes
  • 23C. I. Lopez De AlbaG
  • 6JuanpeD
  • 5R. MerazM
  • 7B. GaldamesM
  • 13J. CaicedoM
  • 14M. GarciaM
  • 99F. MoraF
  • 19S. MunozF
  • 8R. NajeraM
Coach: Raul Chabrand

Form going into Leon vs Atletico San Luis

Leon

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
  • W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
  • W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026

Atletico San Luis

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Monterrey31 August 2026
  • D1-1CF Pachuca23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
  • D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico San Luis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico San Luis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Leon vs Atletico San Luis

  • 22 March 2026Atletico San Luis 1–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 14 July 2025Leon 0–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 17 February 2025Atletico San Luis 1–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 21 September 2024Leon 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 24 February 2024Leon 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX

The full Leon vs Atletico San Luis record →

Leading scorers: Leon and Atletico San Luis

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado51

Atletico San Luis

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leon beat Atletico San Luis 2–0. The model had made a win for Leon its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Diber Cambindo 49' for Leon, Diber Cambindo 71' for Leon.

How the call on Leon v Atletico San Luis has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Atletico San Luis's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Leon win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Atletico San Luis win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.