Puebla
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Puebla 1–0 Monterrey
The model makes it 37% Puebla, 28% draw, 35% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.34, Monterrey 1.28.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Puebla and Monterrey are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11 games; Monterrey are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Puebla are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Leon.
- Monterrey have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club America.
- Last 6 meetings: Monterrey 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Monterrey 2–1 Puebla.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puebla vs Monterrey
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puebla vs Monterrey
Puebla
- D1-1Leon10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
Monterrey
- D1-1away to Club America11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Puebla
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Monterrey
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Monterrey
- 22 April 2026Monterrey 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 30 August 2025Puebla 2–4 MonterreyLiga MX
- 13 January 2025Monterrey 1–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 17 August 2024Puebla 1–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 14 January 2024Monterrey 2–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 4 October 2023Puebla 1–1 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Monterrey
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos51
- D. Rossi33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puebla carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.57 for Monterrey. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Puebla and 1.28 for Monterrey. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puebla rate 0.57 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monterrey rate 0.77 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puebla a 0% chance of the title and Monterrey 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puebla the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Puebla against 1.28 for Monterrey. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.36 for Monterrey.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Puebla at home · Monterrey away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PueblaMonterrey
Puebla are 8th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 4th and 9th so far); Monterrey are 10th after 10 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Puebla 11, Monterrey 10.
Monterrey score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Puebla have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Puebla
- at Atlas25 Oct · Liga MXwin 24%
- vs Pumas UNAM31 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- at Club Queretaro9 Nov · Liga MXwin 18%
- vs Atletico San Luis21 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
Monterrey
- vs Guadalajara Chivas25 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- vs Club Tijuana1 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
- at Toluca8 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
- at Club Queretaro14 Nov · Liga MXwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.