Atletico Torque
vs
Atletico Mineiro
CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction
Our model says: Atletico Torque 0–1 Atletico Mineiro
The model makes it 27% Atletico Torque, 27% draw, 46% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Torque 1.11, Atletico Mineiro 1.62.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Atletico Mineiro are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico Torque are top in CONMEBOL Sudamericana, Group F on 13 points from 6 games; Atletico Mineiro are top in CONMEBOL Sudamericana, Group B on 10 points from 6 games.
- Atletico Torque have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cienciano.
- Atletico Mineiro have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Santos.
Chance to go through
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. First leg: Atletico Mineiro v Atletico Torque, 14 Oct →
- Atletico Mineiro72%
- Level after both legs13%
- Atletico Torque15%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Torque vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Torque
- W3-0Cienciano18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cienciano11 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre12 August 2026
- D2-2away to Gremio26 May 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- L0-2away to Santos9 September 2026
- D2-2RB Bragantino19 August 2026
- W1-0away to RB Bragantino12 August 2026
- W1-0Puerto Cabello27 May 2026
- W2-0Cienciano21 May 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Torque scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 1 | Atletico Mineiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Atletico Torque and Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Torque
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez71
- F. Pizzichillo31
Atletico Mineiro
GoalsAssists
- Bernard40
- T. Cuello34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Torque carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.8 for Atletico Mineiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Atletico Torque and 1.62 for Atletico Mineiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Torque rate 0.76 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Mineiro rate 0.89 and 0.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Atletico Torque against 1.62 for Atletico Mineiro. Atletico Torque's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.99 for Atletico Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Torque
No further matches on our board yet.
Atletico Mineiro
- at Flamengo26 Oct · Serie Awin 17%
- vs Cruzeiro29 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- at Botafogo5 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.