Vasco da Gama
vs
Boca Juniors
CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction
Our model says: Vasco da Gama 1–0 Boca Juniors
The model makes it 36% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 36% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.34, Boca Juniors 1.36.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Vasco da Gama and Boca Juniors are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vasco da Gama are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Boca Juniors.
- Boca Juniors are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Universidad Catolica.
Chance to go through
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. First leg: Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama (14 Oct) →
Aggregate: Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama
- Boca Juniors17%
- Level after both legs20%
- Vasco da Gama63%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
Vasco da Gama
- W1-0away to Boca Juniors14 October 2026
- W2-0Santa Fe15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W4-1away to Olimpia20 August 2026
- D0-0Olimpia13 August 2026
Boca Juniors
- L0-1Vasco da Gama14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
What these results say
- Vasco da Gama went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had two goals or fewer.
- Boca Juniors scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors
- 14 October 2026Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Boca Juniors
Vasco da Gama
GoalsAssists
- Adson43
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasco da Gama carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.86 for Boca Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.36 for Boca Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasco da Gama rate 0.86 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boca Juniors rate 1.08 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 1.36 for Boca Juniors. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.06 for Boca Juniors.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasco da Gama at home · Boca Juniors away
League matches only, this season — Vasco da Gama in the Serie A, Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Vasco da Gama 29 in the Serie A, Boca Juniors 29 in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 2 there.
Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vasco da Gama
- vs Corinthians24 Oct · Serie Awin 48%
- vs Flamengo29 Oct · Serie Awin 27%
- at Atletico Paranaense4 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
Boca Juniors
- at Independiente25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- vs River Plate1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 49%
- vs Defensa Y Justicia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.