Columbus Crew
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter Miami
The model makes it 39% Columbus Crew, 23% draw, 38% Inter Miami — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 2.06, Inter Miami 2.01.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Columbus Crew and Inter Miami are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Columbus Crew's rating is built from 71 MLS matches and Inter Miami's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Columbus Crew are 7th on 47 points from 34 games; Inter Miami are 2nd on 60 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Columbus Crew are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Chicago Fire.
- Inter Miami are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Charlotte.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter Miami.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
Has the model earned this number?
Columbus Crew at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer
- W4-3away to Chicago Fire7 November 2026
- W3-0DC United31 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Dallas29 October 2026
- W4-2Toronto FC24 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer
- D3-3Charlotte7 November 2026
- W2-1away to New England Revolution2 November 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati28 October 2026
- L0-2away to New York Red Bulls24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew won every one of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
- 27 September 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2026Inter Miami 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Inter Miami 5–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025Columbus Crew 0–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Columbus Crew 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2024Columbus Crew 3–2 Inter MiamiLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and Inter Miami
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 2.01 for Inter Miami. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.4 for Inter Miami.
How the model reaches 39% for Columbus Crew to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Columbus Crew to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Columbus Crew's ratings take away 4 points and Inter Miami's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Columbus Crew's ratings42%−4
- Inter Miami's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Columbus Crew at home · Inter Miami away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Columbus Crew 34, Inter Miami 34.
Columbus Crew score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Inter Miami have let in 7 there.
Inter Miami score most often in the 31–45 minute window (20 goals); Columbus Crew have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.